What is the Treadstone 71 Cognitive Warfare Monitor?
The Cognitive Warfare Monitor (CWM) is a subscription intelligence product from Treadstone 71 LLC that tracks adversary narratives on a fixed cadence: a weekly narrative brief every Monday at 0900 Eastern, a monthly strategic roll-up, and a quarterly cross-reference to The Adversary Index. Every source carries an Admiralty grade under the ASA Evidence Standard, every judgment a Sherman Kent probability band, and every driver a STEMPLES Plus tag. Five tracks cover Russia, Iran and the Gulf, China, DPRK, and transnational criminal networks, with collection in English, Russian, Persian, Arabic, Mandarin, and Spanish. Three tiers: Analyst at $18,000 a year, Institutional at $60,000 a year, and Sentinel at $180,000 a year. The inaugural weekly brief publishes October 19, 2026.
Cognitive Warfare Monitor
Original assessments. Graded sources. Every week.
A standing watch on what adversaries say and spread. Each week the Monitor tracks the narratives that matter to your organization, names where they came from and who is pushing them, grades every source, and states in plain probability terms where each narrative goes next. Not a digest of other people's reports. Not a dashboard with the method hidden.
- Cadence
- Weekly brief · monthly roll-up · quarterly tie-in to The Adversary Index
- Tracks
- Russia · Iran and the Gulf · China · DPRK · Transnational criminal networks
- Collection languages
- English · Russian · Persian · Arabic · Mandarin · Spanish
- On every assessment
- Admiralty source grade · Sherman Kent band · STEMPLES Plus driver tags
| Narrative | Track | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Americans in the crosshairs (Rybar) | RU · IR | Escalated |
| U.S. water-utility intrusion claims | IR | Recycling |
| Client sector track, item 3 | Custom | New |
| Taiwan Strait readiness narrative | CN | Steady |
| Sinaloa succession disinformation | TCO | Dormant |
Status, track, and title only. Full entries carry grades, bands, drivers, and indicators.
Five standing tracks, one method
Each track follows the actors scored in The Adversary Index. Sentinel subscribers add a sixth track built to their own exposure.
RURussia and the near abroad
State media, Telegram channel networks, reflexive control operations, and the Eastern European political targets they aim at.
IR · GCCIran and the Gulf
IRGC-aligned outlets and personas, proxy messaging, and coercion narratives against GCC states and Western basing.
CNChina and the Indo-Pacific
PRC state and affiliated media, united-front amplification, and supply-chain and Taiwan narratives.
KPDPRK
Regime messaging, revenue-operation cover narratives, and the personas that carry them into Western platforms.
TCOTransnational criminal networks
Cartel and syndicate information operations in Spanish and English: intimidation, recruitment, and legitimacy narratives.
What a weekly entry looks like
Two entries from the format, drawn from Treadstone 71 reporting already in the public record, with subscriber-specific and sensitive fields redacted. The third entry is a client-track item, redacted in full.
Bottom line up front
Two tracked narratives escalated this week. A Russian-amplified Iranian threat narrative against U.S. and allied basing in Europe moved from Russian-language Telegram into Bulgarian political discourse ahead of a 1 October decision point. An Iran-aligned claim set about U.S. water-utility intrusions continued to recycle July events as new. One client-track item entered the register. No tracked narrative moved to dormant.
Tracked narratives
- Origin
- Rybar, Russian-language Telegram, scenario post dated . Source grade C3: fairly reliable, possibly true.
- Amplifiers
- (Bulgarian-language channels, grade E4); Iranian state-aligned outlets, grade D3.
- Verified
- Rybar published a strike scenario naming Bezmer and Akrotiri. The scenario is an assessment, not an event. The Bulgarian basing decision carries a 1 October deadline.
- Claim
- Strikes on the named bases are imminent. Uncorroborated by any source graded C or better.
- Assessment
- Likely (55 to <85) the narrative reaches Bulgarian national broadcast media before the 1 October decision point. Unlikely (15 to <45) it produces a change in the basing decision on its own.
- Indicators
- Pickup by a named Bulgarian parliamentary figure; a second Rybar map iteration; Iranian outlet cross-posting in Bulgarian; .
- Velocity
- days from first post to first non-Russian-language pickup, set against the Russia CWV baseline in the Q3 Index.
- Posture
- Pre-position a factual statement on basing status with ; brief before 15 September. Full Treadstone 71 brief on this narrative: treadstone71.com/crosshairs.
- Origin
- Iran-aligned persona accounts, . Source grade D4: not usually reliable, doubtful.
- Verified
- Intrusions against water systems in twelve U.S. states occurred in July 2026, documented in the Treadstone 71 forecast validation record (16 dated predictions, public audit 8 September). Record grade B2.
- Claim
- New intrusions in September. No named utility, no dated artifact, no agency corroboration.
- Assessment
- Highly unlikely (5 to <15) the September claims reflect new intrusions. Likely (55 to <85) the claim set persists through October as recycled content tied to July events.
- Indicators
- A named utility; a dated artifact; corroboration from a state or federal agency. Any one of the three reopens the assessment.
- Posture
- Hold. Do not amplify by rebuttal. Route any customer inquiry to the July record.
Corrections and errata
None this edition. Corrections publish in the next edition under this heading, never as a silent edit.
Format shown at reduced length. A full weekly brief carries five to eight entries plus the monthly and quarterly sections on their dates.
Published, so a reader can check the work
Four instruments run under every entry. All four are documented on this site or in the ASA Evidence Standard white paper published September 15, 2026.
STEMPLES Plus drivers
Every narrative carries the tags for what drives it: Social, Technical, Economic, Military, Political, Legal, Educational, Security, plus the Plus factors of Demographics, Religion, and Psychological Terrain. Tags let a reader see why a narrative exists, not just that it does.
ASA Evidence Standard
Admiralty entry anchor, reliability A to F and credibility 1 to 6 printed apart and never averaged, then the tri-score: T-Score for evidence quality, D-Score for deception likelihood, F-Score for endgame confidence. Self-serving claims grade no higher than fairly reliable. Verified fact and adversary claim never share a sentence.
Sherman Kent bands
Seven probability terms, each tied to a numeric band, on every judgment about where a narrative goes next. No unbanded assessment ships. A judgment without a band is a draft.
Tie to The Adversary Index
Velocity reads compare each narrative against the actor's Cognitive Warfare Velocity and Narrative Volume baselines in the current Index. The quarterly cross-reference explains which tracked narratives moved which sub-index.
| Probability term | Band (percent) | Read it as |
|---|---|---|
| Almost certain | 95 to 99 | Plan on it. |
| Highly likely | 85 to <95 | Expect it; hold a contingency. |
| Likely | 55 to <85 | More probable than not. |
| Roughly even chance | 45 to <55 | A coin flip; the indicators decide. |
| Unlikely | 15 to <45 | Less probable than not. |
| Highly unlikely | 5 to <15 | Do not plan on it; watch the indicators. |
| Almost no chance | 1 to <5 | Set aside unless an indicator fires. |
Fixed dates, published in advance
The Monitor runs on a calendar a subscriber can set internal briefings against. Missed dates get a public correction line, not a quiet edit.
| Product | When | What it contains | Tiers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Narrative Brief | Mondays, 0900 Eastern. U.S. federal holidays shift to Tuesday. | BLUF, five to eight tracked narratives at full entry depth, status register, velocity reads, corrections. | All |
| Monthly Strategic Roll-up | First Monday of the month, replacing that week's brief. | Narrative persistence table, cross-actor patterns, STEMPLES Plus driver shifts, forecast scorecard: what the Monitor said and what happened. | All |
| Quarterly Index Cross-Reference | The Monday after each Adversary Index release. First: January 2027. | Which tracked narratives moved which sub-index, reconciled to the published scores. | All |
| Flash Alert | Within 24 hours of a qualifying event. | Short graded notice: a narrative crossing into mainstream media in a subscriber market, a new coordinated network on a track, or a verified incident a tracked narrative is built on. | Institutional · Sentinel |
| Early access | 24 hours (Institutional) or 48 hours (Sentinel) before general release. | Embargoed edition delivered ahead of the Monday drop. | Institutional · Sentinel |
| RFI turnaround | Five business days (Institutional); two business days (Sentinel). | A scoped answer to a subscriber question on a tracked narrative, with sources, grades, and a band. | Institutional · Sentinel |
| Analyst call | Weekly, 30 minutes, at a fixed slot. | Named analyst walks the edition and takes questions. | Sentinel |
| Formats | Each release. | PDF and EPUB3 for all tiers. Sentinel adds a JSON feed of narrative records for internal platforms. | All · Sentinel |
Three ways to monitor narratives. One you can cite.
Most monitoring products are one of two things: a curated digest of what other people published, or a platform dashboard whose method stays inside the vendor. The Monitor is a third thing.
| Dimension | Curated digest | Platform dashboard | Cognitive Warfare Monitor |
|---|---|---|---|
| What you receive | Links and summaries of third-party reports | Charts, counts, and model outputs | Original assessments written by Treadstone 71 analysts |
| Sourcing | Whatever the original author cited | Undisclosed | Admiralty grade on every source, both axes |
| Probability | None | Model confidence, method undisclosed | Seven Sherman Kent bands on every judgment |
| Method | Not applicable | Proprietary | Published: STEMPLES Plus, ASA Evidence Standard, Kent bands, the Index |
| Coverage | Whatever got published that week | Often one theatre | Five standing tracks across the actors scored in the Index |
| Cadence | Continuous, unscheduled | Continuous, unscheduled | Weekly, monthly, quarterly, with flash alerts |
| Corrections | The original author's problem | Silent | Public, in the next edition |
| Citable in a board paper | Cite the original author | Screenshot | Dated edition, numbered entry, graded sources |
Choose the watch your desk needs
Each tier includes everything below it. Paid subscriptions carry no online checkout: name the tier through the contact form and Treadstone 71 replies with the agreement and access details.
For a working analyst or a small team that follows one adversary closely.
- Weekly Narrative Brief, one track of your choice
- Monthly Strategic Roll-up
- Quarterly Adversary Index cross-reference
- Three reader seats
- PDF and EPUB3
For a security operations center, a StratCom unit, a FIMI cell, or a research institute that needs the whole field.
- Everything in Analyst
- All five standing tracks
- Sector overlay across the tracks
- Flash alerts within 24 hours of a qualifying event
- 24-hour early access
- Four RFI credits a quarter, five-business-day turnaround
- Fifteen reader seats
For an organization whose own name, executives, facilities, or policy positions are the target.
- Everything in Institutional
- A sixth track built to your exposure, same grading and bands
- Named analyst; weekly 30-minute call
- 48-hour early access
- Two-business-day RFI turnaround
- JSON feed of narrative records
- Quarterly board briefing
- Organization-wide seats
Multi-year and sector pricing. Multi-year prepayment reduces Analyst and Institutional cost by 10 percent. Government, defense prime contractors, and academic institutions reduce cost by 15 percent. Bundles with The Adversary Index are available on inquiry.
Before you subscribe
What is the Cognitive Warfare Monitor?
The Cognitive Warfare Monitor (CWM) is a subscription intelligence product from Treadstone 71 that tracks adversary narratives on a fixed cadence: a weekly narrative brief, a monthly strategic roll-up, and a quarterly cross-reference to The Adversary Index. Every source carries an Admiralty grade, every judgment a Sherman Kent probability band, and every driver a STEMPLES Plus tag. The inaugural weekly brief publishes October 19, 2026.
What is in a weekly brief?
A bottom line up front, then five to eight tracked narratives. Each narrative carries its origin, its amplifiers, STEMPLES Plus driver tags, an Admiralty grade for each source, a Sherman Kent assessment of where the narrative goes next, the indicators that would change that assessment, and a recommended defensive posture. A status line marks each narrative new, escalated, steady, or dormant. A velocity read compares the narrative's spread against the actor's baseline in The Adversary Index.
How are sources graded?
On the expanded Admiralty grid under the ASA Evidence Standard: source reliability A to F and information credibility 1 to 6, each on its own axis, never averaged. Self-serving claims grade no higher than fairly reliable. Verified fact and adversary claim never share a sentence.
Which regions and languages does the Monitor cover?
Five tracks: Russia and the near abroad, Iran and the Gulf, China and the Indo-Pacific, DPRK, and transnational criminal networks in Latin America. Collection runs in English, Russian, Persian, Arabic, Mandarin, and Spanish. The product publishes in English.
How does the Monitor relate to The Adversary Index?
The Index scores adversary posture once a quarter. The Monitor tracks what those adversaries say and spread every week. Each weekly velocity read compares a narrative against the actor's Cognitive Warfare Velocity and Narrative Volume baselines in the current Index, and the quarterly cross-reference explains which tracked narratives moved which sub-index. Subscribers to both get one consistent picture.
Can I get a track built for my own organization or sector?
Yes. The Sentinel tier adds a bespoke narrative track built to the subscriber's own exposure: named brands, executives, facilities, or policy positions, with the same grading and probability discipline as the five standing tracks. Institutional subscribers get a sector overlay across the standing tracks.
What is a flash alert?
A short graded notice issued within 24 hours of a qualifying event: a tracked narrative crossing into mainstream media in a subscriber's market, a new coordinated network appearing on a track, or a verified incident that a tracked narrative is built on. Flash alerts go to Institutional and Sentinel subscribers and carry the same source grades and probability bands as the weekly brief.
How do I subscribe, and when does the first brief ship?
Use the contact form and name the tier. Treadstone 71 replies with the subscription agreement and access details. The inaugural weekly brief publishes Monday, October 19, 2026, two weeks after the Q3 Adversary Index release, so the first edition cites current scores. Paid tiers carry no online checkout.
Put a graded watch on the narratives aimed at you.
Name the tier and the tracks you need. Treadstone 71 replies with the agreement, the access details, and the date of your first edition.
Direct line: 424.234.3629
