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The Adversary Index · Q3 2026 · Published October 5, 2026

China

Held. No development between July 1 and October 5, 2026 met the primary-source bar for a move.

Lead judgment. China holds pre-positioned access inside US communications, energy, transport, and water networks for use in a Taiwan contingency, not to cause an effect now.Likely (55 to <85) · Evidence A2 · CISA, NSA, FBI, and Five Eyes advisory AA24-038A
TAI COMPOSITE · 0 TO 100
89
Tier 0Held vs Q2 2026 (89)
Next scoreJanuary 15, 2027
WatchHeld access turns into a disruptive effect in a US lifeline sector, or a Taiwan exercise arrives paired with a cyber effect.

Eight sub-indices

Cognitive Warfare Velocity
92
OPSEC Sophistication
92
Adaptation
82
Narrative Volume
90
Sectoral Targeting
88
AI Tradecraft Adoption
88
Doctrinal Maturity
89
Operational Tempo
88

Each sub-index runs 0 to 100. Every score rests on evidence graded under the ASA Evidence Standard, Public Edition 1.2 (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23137881).

Who runs the operations

The Ministry of State Security and its contractors, and the People's Liberation Army cyber forces under the 2024 reorganization.

Read the scoring

The Tier 0 edition carries the full Big Four read, the trigger board, and the forecasts. Paid tiers add the actor profiles, the evidence registers, and the decision playbooks.

Free Tier 0 Edition (PDF)All 42 Adversaries

Other Big Four pages: Russia · North Korea · Iran · About the Index

Probability language follows the Sherman Kent scale with half-open bands. Verified facts and adversary claims stay apart in every Treadstone 71 product. © 2026 Treadstone71, LLC dba Treadstone 71. TREADSTONE 71® is a registered trademark of Treadstone71, LLC.