China
Held. No development between July 1 and October 5, 2026 met the primary-source bar for a move.
| Next score | January 15, 2027 |
|---|---|
| Watch | Held access turns into a disruptive effect in a US lifeline sector, or a Taiwan exercise arrives paired with a cyber effect. |
Eight sub-indices
Each sub-index runs 0 to 100. Every score rests on evidence graded under the ASA Evidence Standard, Public Edition 1.2 (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23137881).
Who runs the operations
The Ministry of State Security and its contractors, and the People's Liberation Army cyber forces under the 2024 reorganization.
Read the scoring
The Tier 0 edition carries the full Big Four read, the trigger board, and the forecasts. Paid tiers add the actor profiles, the evidence registers, and the decision playbooks.
Free Tier 0 Edition (PDF)All 42 AdversariesOther Big Four pages: Russia · North Korea · Iran · About the Index
Probability language follows the Sherman Kent scale with half-open bands. Verified facts and adversary claims stay apart in every Treadstone 71 product. © 2026 Treadstone71, LLC dba Treadstone 71. TREADSTONE 71® is a registered trademark of Treadstone71, LLC.