Iran
Up one point. AI tradecraft became a formal scoring input at 75, and ten indicators moved on evidence gathered after the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed on July 8, 2026.
| Next score | January 15, 2027 |
|---|---|
| Watch | A renewed large-scale US or Israeli strike. Treadstone 71 rates one by January 15, 2027 as likely (55 to <85). |
Eight sub-indices
Each sub-index runs 0 to 100. Every score rests on evidence graded under the ASA Evidence Standard, Public Edition 1.2 (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23137881).
Who runs the operations
The IRGC Intelligence Organization, the IRGC Electronic and Cyber Center, and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security.
Read the scoring
The Tier 0 edition carries the full Big Four read, the trigger board, and the forecasts. Paid tiers add the actor profiles, the evidence registers, and the decision playbooks.
Free Tier 0 Edition (PDF)All 42 AdversariesOther Big Four pages: China · Russia · North Korea · About the Index
Probability language follows the Sherman Kent scale with half-open bands. Verified facts and adversary claims stay apart in every Treadstone 71 product. © 2026 Treadstone71, LLC dba Treadstone 71. TREADSTONE 71® is a registered trademark of Treadstone71, LLC.
