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The Adversary Index · Q3 2026 · Published October 5, 2026

Russia

Held. The score sits inside the 75 to 85 boundary zone and carries a standing senior review.

Lead judgment. Russian state intelligence runs AI-driven intrusion workflows, from phishing to exfiltration, against Western government and policy targets.Highly likely (85 to <95) · Evidence B2 · Anthropic threat report, September 10, 2026 (GTG-20006)
TAI COMPOSITE · 0 TO 100
85
Tier 0Held vs Q2 2026 (85)
Next scoreJanuary 15, 2027
WatchQuiet access inside a Western lifeline sector turns into a disruptive effect.

Eight sub-indices

Cognitive Warfare Velocity
88
OPSEC Sophistication
85
Adaptation
78
Narrative Volume
89
Sectoral Targeting
80
AI Tradecraft Adoption
82
Doctrinal Maturity
90
Operational Tempo
87

Each sub-index runs 0 to 100. Every score rests on evidence graded under the ASA Evidence Standard, Public Edition 1.2 (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23137881).

Who runs the operations

The GRU, FSB, and SVR, with hacktivist fronts for disruption and front networks such as Doppelganger and Storm-1516 for influence.

Read the scoring

The Tier 0 edition carries the full Big Four read, the trigger board, and the forecasts. Paid tiers add the actor profiles, the evidence registers, and the decision playbooks.

Free Tier 0 Edition (PDF)All 42 Adversaries

Other Big Four pages: China · North Korea · Iran · About the Index

Probability language follows the Sherman Kent scale with half-open bands. Verified facts and adversary claims stay apart in every Treadstone 71 product. © 2026 Treadstone71, LLC dba Treadstone 71. TREADSTONE 71® is a registered trademark of Treadstone71, LLC.